What to Watch For on Trail Blazers' Six-Game Road Trip
Portland embarks on its first extended road trip of the season. Here's what I'm going to be watching.
The Trail Blazers' first two weeks of schedule have been home-heavy, and they've opened an impressive 5-2. Now, their first big test of the season begins with a six-game road trip, their first of three trips of that length and arguably the toughest of the three in terms of opponent strength. It kicks off with back-to-back games tonight and Saturday in Phoenix, followed by Miami on Monday, another back-to-back in Charlotte on Wednesday and New Orleans on Thursday and wrapping up in Dallas on Saturday.
That's four of five opponents presumed to be playoff teams, one of which (Miami) has already beaten the Blazers this season, and another (Phoenix) that Portland beat in overtime but has looked as good as any team in the league since then. Even the one presumed lottery team on the trip (Charlotte) has been competitive in games against better teams so far this season. There are no easy wins to be found.
Portland will also be shorthanded for at least the first part of the trip. Damian Lillard, who has missed the last two games after suffering a right calf strain in last week's loss to Miami, has been ruled out for the first of the two Suns games. I've heard he isn't far away from a return, but with it being this early in the season, the Blazers are being ultra-cautious. Anfernee Simons, who had 31 points in Wednesday's loss to the Grizzlies, is questionable with left foot inflammation.
No matter how you look at it, this is going to be a tough trip. Here's what I'll be watching for over the next nine days:
Clean up the Turnovers
In the Blazers' two losses this season, to the Heat and Grizzlies, their biggest issue has been taking care of the ball. They're playing more in transition than they have in years, but their effectiveness in that offense still has to catch up. This is to be expected for a team that's had this much turnover and is still learning each other's tendencies.
The bad news: all five of the teams Portland faces on this six-game road trip rank in the top half of the league in opponent turnover percentage, per Cleaning the Glass—Miami is third, Phoenix is sixth, Charlotte is 11th, Dallas is 14th and New Orleans is 15th. Miami has already had success against Portland in forcing turnovers with their physicality.
"It's the careless turnovers that really bother me," Chauncey Billups said last month. "It's not when you're making the extra pass to do the right thing and they deflect it. I'm OK with that one. It's the careless ones. I think that bothers any coach."
The Blazers have had a lot of those lately. Travels, charges, bad passes, even just bad shots that have come when players hesitate a little too long to shoot what was an open shot. All of that will have to be tightened up.
Who Runs the Offense?
Lillard is out for at least the first game. Simons' status is up in the air. Presumably, Shaedon Sharpe will remain in the starting lineup in Lillard's spot. If Simons can't go, don't be surprised if Keon Johnson gets the start in his place. He's started the season on the outside looking in at the rotation after a strong preseason and training camp, but he's gotten in since Lillard has been out. He was particularly impressive during the comeback against the Grizzlies, and Billups rode him for most of the second half after using Justise Winslow as initiator with the second unit in the first half.
If Lillard and Simons are both out, that also means more creating and ballhandling responsibilities for Josh Hart. Even Sharpe, who has a ways to go as a creator despite how impressive he's been across the board, might get some reps running the offense just out of necessity.
By all indications, Lillard's absence is more out of an abundance of caution than his calf injury being a long-term concern. If he doesn't play at some point on the trip, there will be cause for concern; for now, expect him back at some point in the next week. That will make a lot of this easier. But the Blazers will need to get through at least another game, and maybe more, before that happens.
Aim for a Split
You're probably not going to sweep any road trip, especially one in this compressed a window of time against this strong a slate of opponents. My last year covering the Bulls in 2016-17, Dwyane Wade said ahead of a similar trip that going .500 is what a team should aim for. That principle can be applied here, too. If they split the two games in Phoenix, take care of Charlotte and win one of the Miami/New Orleans/Dallas games, that's a good trip. Even 2-4 under the circumstances isn't alarming. Anything better than 3-3 is a resounding success.
The 5-2 start to the season gives the Blazers a cushion to be able to approach it like that. Since their schedule came out in August, the thinking has been that their early part of the schedule is so road- and contender-heavy that if they're even in range of .500 by Christmas, they're in good shape. If they get a split on this road trip, they'd have to feel pretty good about coming home 8-5.