The Next Two Weeks Will Be Crucial in Determining What Kind of Team the Trail Blazers Are
An important stretch is coming up, with five of the next seven games against playoff teams.
The Trail Blazers have had more than a few rough patches this season, but the one they're in right now may be the worst of the year. And they're coming up on a two-week stretch that will go a long way in determining what kind of team they want to be, and what kind of season they want to have.
It hasn't just been the losses—they're 3-6 in the last three weeks, with the three wins coming against terrible Houston, Charlotte and Detroit teams—it's how they've been losing. Two back-to-back losses in Oklahoma City that came down to the final possession. A meltdown on the road against the Stephen Curry-less Warriors. Similar late collapses on this current road trip in Minnesota and Indiana, with the latest coming in a loss to the Pacers in which they did not make a field goal in the final seven and a half minutes of the fourth quarter.
The winnable games the Blazers have dropped are starting to run together, but at the end of the year, they're all going to count the same in the standings. On Sunday, they'll close out the road trip in Toronto; if they lose that one, they'll fall below .500 for the first time this season. As it is, they're ninth in the west, two and a half games back of fourth but just one game up from falling out of the play-in race. And these self-inflicted losses are adding up.
It's been over a month since the Blazers have beaten a team with a winning record—that being Dec. 4 at home against this same Pacers team, albeit with Tyrese Haliburton sidelined—and after the coming two games against the Raptors and Magic, they'll have five in a row against much better teams.
It's a tough stretch to right the ship. But if they can't, it's coming to a time in the calendar when some uncomfortable questions will need to be asked.
They'll face the Cavaliers, who beat them handily when they faced off in Cleveland in November. Then, a home back-to-back against the Mavericks, who beat them both times they played in Dallas. Then, their one remaining road game of January against the Nuggets, who have beaten them two of three times they've played this season (including another one of those winnable games they've dropped in the final seconds) and have separated themselves as one of the true contenders in the Western Conference. Then, a Sixers team that may or may not have Joel Embiid but that's talented enough to beat anyone.
Thus far, it's been tempting, and even valid at times, to hand-wave away the Blazers' up-and-down play by pointing to their injuries, road-heavy schedule and the amount of tough teams they've faced. And while coming out of the gauntlet they've faced at .500 as of today is impressive, they could be significantly higher than that if not for a series of losses in the same fashion that are looking less like flukes or bad luck and more like just who this team is. There's only so many times they can point to still learning each other or not having enough practice time before it starts to sound like excuses for underachieving from a team that has shown they have the ability to be much better than they've been.
The "road-heavy" part of their brutal schedule is coming to an end. They should get Justise Winslow and Nassir Little back soon, and the ankle injury that's kept Gary Payton II out since his season debut on Monday isn't believed to be serious. They'll soon be as healthy as they've ever been. They're playing tough teams, but at their best, they've beaten tough teams: Denver, Phoenix (twice), Sacramento, New Orleans, Miami.
At some point, the excuses are going to run out, and this stretch is coming right when it needs to.
The organization has downplayed expectations going into the season. General manager Joe Cronin said on media day that he knew more moves were needed for this team to contend, but he wanted to use the first part of the season as an evaluation period. Well, they're starting to get a pretty good-sized sample of losing games due to the same issues—turnovers and late-game execution—to evaluate.
We're just over a month out from the Feb. 9 trade deadline. Cronin will have a decision to make before then about whether the good parts of what he's seen this year are worth making all-in upgrades to try to push them up a level from the crowded middle-to-bottom of the Western Conference standings.
And there have been good parts. The resurgence of Damian Lillard, the ascension of Anfernee Simons, the perfect fit of Jerami Grant, the recent blossoming of rookies Shaedon Sharpe and Jabari Walker, the defensive tenacity of Winslow and Josh Hart. That stuff counts just as much as the persistent turnover problem. Even beyond needing one more difference-maker, they could use a more consistent bench. Maybe that all will come when Payton can play more regularly. But what are the odds, after a protracted recovery from a core-muscle surgery followed by two more missed games after suffering a sprained ankle in his season debut, that Payton will stay healthy the rest of the way? Maybe he will, but they shouldn't bank on it.
If the Blazers can rise to the challenges they'll face in the next two weeks against a series of quality opponents, that will affect how they're viewed, internally and externally, as the deadline approaches. If they continue to slide, that will affect things, too.
Coming into the season, everyone acknowledged this team wasn't a finished product. So far, they've played like just that, a work in progress. The next two weeks will go a long way in determining what the next steps are in completing that puzzle.