MAILBAG (PART 2): Who Will Return to the Trail Blazers' Roster Next Season?
Mailbag questions on how different Portland's roster might look after this summer.
With less than two weeks to go in the regular season, we’re continuing to work through the mailbag to answer your questions on the Trail Blazers’ present and future. Part one ran on Monday; the third installment will run on Friday.
While the Blazers aren’t “ready to win” yet, do you see a scenario this offseason where they make a play for an All-Star via trade if the opportunity presents itself? The Blazers finally have plenty of draft capital and young players to intrigue other teams in any trade scenario.
- Kyle H.
They would like to do that, but I don’t know how realistic it is. I don’t think the front office (or ownership) can afford for this to be a four- or five-year rebuild, so at some point, there needs to be some big-time talent coming in the door. But it’s hard to find one of those players on the market without either giving up too much or settling for someone who doesn’t fit just for the sake of making a big splash.
If they do make a “big” move this summer to bring in a player, I’d say they’re less likely to target an established All-Star and more likely to try to buy early on someone they feel has All-Star potential but is still on their rookie deal, who could be available due to any number of different circumstances—similar to Oklahoma City getting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a trade in 2019 or Indiana getting Tyrese Haliburton in 2022, before those players became what they are now.
I have a few guesses as to who they might circle that fits that category, but right now, they’re just guesses. The lottery will determine a lot.
Will / should the Blazers make any significant moves in the offseason or will there be a few roster cuts and draft pick consolidation but another year of a similar roster plus new draft picks?
- JJ
There have to be, if not drastic changes, at least meaningful ones. I’ll get into this a lot more after the season when we get fully into lookahead mode, but roster math and the luxury tax make it so they can’t run back this roster. It would be too expensive and it isn’t a group anyone could comfortably say is close to being in contention for the play-in or the playoffs.
How would you rank the following in terms of how likely they are not be on the Blazers on opening night next year? Simons, Thybulle, Ayton, Brogdon, Grant, and the player selected with the Warriors first round pick.
- Ross M.
Ayton, Simons and Grant I would put in the category of “pretty likely to be back, unless a perfect deal comes along.” None of these guys are untouchable, but those three they aren’t in any hurry to move. If Grant asked for it, they’d accommodate him. But he told me before the trade deadline that he’s happy here and I haven’t gotten any indication that’s changed. Eventually, they’re going to have to make a long-term decision between Henderson and Simons, but they can put that off another year. Ayton has played well enough that it would be hard to get an upgrade if they moved him.
Thybulle could go either way. They like him and would be happy to keep him, but he’s the kind of guy that could draw trade interest from good teams because of his defense and reasonable salary. Brogdon is by far the most likely out of the players you named to be traded this summer, because he’s going into the last year of his deal and their three most important long-term players are guards.
The Warriors pick is tough to handicap before the lottery. They probably shouldn’t bring in two new rookies because they already have a lot of young players they need to develop, and they know it. If the Blazers’ own pick moves up into the top three or four, they might be more motivated to move the Warriors pick (maybe along with Brogdon) for a player.
Outside of our core players who would have significant capital if traded (Ayton, Grant, Brogdon, Simons, Henderson and Sharpe), who are the other players currently on our roster that you think have played well enough to make the Blazers NBA roster for next year?
- Eric W.
So, I’ll take this one in combination with Ross’ question above, as: Outside of the veterans and the lottery picks, who do they view as good enough to keep around?
This list obviously starts with Toumani Camara, who I think has played himself into being part of the “core” of the rebuild. Eventually, they’re going to have to decide between Kris Murray and Jabari Walker, but it’s too early to make that call right now (I’ll have more on this in a few weeks). Rayan Rupert is someone they very much believe in long-term. Duop Reath has a guaranteed contract for next season. It’s suddenly looking like the right move to pick up Dalano Banton’s team option for next year. I think there’s a strong likelihood Ibou Badji will be re-signed on another two-way contract and spend a lot of time with the Remix next season.
That’s a lot of guys who are at least in the running to be back. I’m planning to write more about the roster and salary crunch after the season is over.
If they had 2 lottery picks and moved the Warriors for a player that would be such a disastrous move. That kind of language makes me very concerned for the team’s future if it reflects any kind of dialogue with the front office.