MAILBAG (PART 1): Who to Watch for the Rest of the Trail Blazers' Season
Plus, has this been a lost season?
Last week, I put out a call for mailbag questions and was pleasantly surprised that, despite the way the Trail Blazers’ season is going, I got more of them than I could use in one column.
Or two.
So this week, while the team finishes out a seven-game road trip that has thus far included their second 60-point loss of the year and a season-ending injury for Toumani Camara, we’re going to do an unprecedented three-part mailbag. Part one will be available for free, covering the rest of this season and what there is to salvage from it. Parts two and three, going up later in the week, will be for paid subscribers and get into more forward-looking topics like the draft and free agency.
Hi Sean,
Besides Scoot running the show for the remainder of the season, is there any other player that you are particularly keeping an eye on that will be key to Blazers future?
- Jon B.
I’m very interested to see how Rayan Rupert looks as his playing time continues to increase here in the last two weeks of the season. If Anfernee Simons continues to miss time, he could see some more on-ball responsibility, which is something in an ideal world he will have in a few years.
Selfishly, I also want to see Ibou Badji get some run, but that might be tough with Deandre Ayton back in the lineup.
As you observe Scoot Henderson, do you believe he is fully recovered from his injuries? Sometimes, my subjective mind thinks he is driving less, and is less explosive at the rim than he was at the start of the season.
- Tom B.
I don’t think he’s playing hurt as much as I think everybody is just beat-up right now. And because the injuries have piled up across the roster, some players are having to play more minutes than they’re used to, which can be an adjustment. When you’re coming back from a groin injury like Henderson is, sometimes you don’t fully trust it even if you’re fine physically, and it’s as much a mental hurdle as anything. I’ve seen that happen with players countless times. But I don’t think he’d be playing if he wasn’t healthy.
Hey Sean, what are the roster decisions leading into off season? Who has opt outs, options, or their contract is expiring? Thanks!
- Alex P.
It’s not a long list. Most of the Blazers’ roster is under contract for next season, and of the handful of players with options, picking them up in most cases is a formality.
The only player on an expiring contract that will be a free agent this summer is Moses Brown, who signed a one-year minimum deal last summer. He probably won’t be back.
Jabari Walker’s $2 million salary and Toumani Camara’s $1.9 million salary for next season are both fully non-guaranteed until July 20. If they’re still on the roster after that, their contracts become fully guaranteed for the season. I can’t imagine either one of them would be cut before that guarantee date because they’re both on cheap contracts and are consistent rotation players the organization likes a lot.
Dalano Banton has a $2.2 million team option for next season. If the Blazers pick it up, that salary becomes $217,533 guaranteed for the rest of the offseason. If he’s still on the roster on opening night, the guarantee increases to $1.1 million. The rest of it becomes guaranteed on Jan. 10, the league-wide date that all contracts become guaranteed. With how well Banton has played since coming over at the deadline, it’s hard to see them not picking up his option at such a low number.
That’s it. Everyone else is locked in. I’ll write more about the roster crunch and some of the other, bigger decisions Joe Cronin will have to make after the season is over.
With Walker, Camara, Murray, and even Thybulle, the Blazers have a number of young forwards who are developing and are good enough to play but not yet good enough to start on a good team. What do you think it will take for one of these guys to break out and move up definitely in the pecking order? Who do you see as having the most potential to do so?
- Jonathan M.
I’d argue Camara already has. I’m going to write more in the offseason about the roster crunch, because eventually (not necessarily this summer, but at some point) they’re going to have to make a decision about which two of Walker, Camara and Murray to keep. The offensive growth Camara was showing before his season ended, finally catching up to his defensive impact, vaults him up that list for me.
Has this been a lost season?
- Kacy H.
If it hasn’t, it’s not far off. Because of injuries, there hasn’t been the kind of development most fans would hope for from a season with this many losses. They’re still in a better spot long-term than some bad teams (like the Wizards, who have almost no talent worth building around, or the Nets, who don’t control their draft picks), and there are definitely some pieces that are going to be exciting. But in a season like this, you’d want to see more of those players actually playing together than they were able to.