MAILBAG: Mikal Bridges, Shaedon Sharpe, Keeping vs. Trading #3 Pick, and More

I put out a call for mailbag questions last week, and to the surprise of no one, most of them focused on trade targets and what the Trail Blazers should do with the No. 3 overall pick. It's too early right now to answer anything definitively, but here's the best read we have right now on who they're targeting, what the future holds for Shaedon Sharpe, and just how good any of these upgrades will make Portland this coming season.

So it seems like Portland wants to trade Simons and 3 for one of Mikal Bridges, Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown. If their teams say no, then what? What other options do you believe Portland is pursuing? Is it more likely Portland keeps the pick or trades down in the lottery?

Ross

I would agree that those are the three primary targets when it comes to trades involving the third pick, and I think there's a reasonable chance something gets done involving one of them.

We have a limited sample size of how Joe Cronin operates—two trade deadlines, one draft and one free-agency period—but one thing that's been consistent is he won't make a deal just to make a deal. He didn't give up two first-rounders for Jerami Grant at last year's deadline and instead waited until the offseason when Detroit's price was more in line with Grant's value. He didn't give up the No. 7 pick plus other stuff for O.G. Anunoby last year, even under pressure to make win-now moves, because he felt Shaedon Sharpe's upside was higher than the short-term improvement of getting Anunoby. And he didn't lift the protections on the Bulls pick at this year's deadline despite having a few options on the table, because he didn't feel those options were worth it. He's not going to trade the third pick just to trade the third pick, although in an ideal world that deal presents itself.

So what happens if a deal for one of those three targets falls through?

The idea of trading down is interesting—I've heard Orlando really, really wants Scoot Henderson and holds the No. 6 and 11 picks. A popular fake trade I've seen online a lot in the past week sends the third pick (if Charlotte takes Brandon Miller second and Henderson is there) and Jusuf Nurkic to the Magic for those picks and Wendell Carter, Jr. To me, something like that is worth doing only if you can then flip those picks and Simons into another upgrade, and it's too early to know what sorts of players are available for that package. Doing a deal like that on its own isn't really worth it—if you're going to take a player in the lottery, you might as well take one of the two best non-Victor Wembanyama players in a three-player draft.

Keeping the pick is dicey. Damian Lillard has made it very clear that wouldn't be his preference. I don't think it's as simple as "If they keep the pick, Dame's gone," but trying to walk the two-timelines tightrope for the second year in a row is risky. They have yet to bring any lottery-level prospects in for workouts yet—they've all been late first-rounders or second-round players—so we'll see if someone blows them away in the coming weeks.

I don't think anything is completely off the table right now, but it's pretty clear what the preference would be.

It appears some trade scenarios would push Shaedon Sharpe into the starting 2 spot. Is the feeling around the organization that he’s ready enough, especially on defense? If not, this wouldn’t seem to match up with Dame’s stated sense of urgency.

Thanks,

Matthew B

Everything I've heard is that Sharpe impressed a lot of people in the organization over the last month of the season—not just in what he did on the court in those games when they were tanking, but behind-the-scenes stuff, too. I would imagine the question of whether he's ready to be the long-term starter will sort itself out in training camp.

They do have a security blanket in Matisse Thybulle, who will be a restricted free agent but I expect to be a priority for the front office to bring back. I could easily see Chauncey Billups deciding to start Thybulle at shooting guard and bringing Sharpe off the bench, at least to start the year. Those are questions to be answered in October, not May.

- What are you hearing behind the scenes, Sean? Cut through the smoke—there's a TON of it, and Blazers fans need to know that it's going to be okay...

- Is Bridges 'entirely' off the market or are there actual conversations?

- Am I crazy for wanting the Blazers to keep the pick but use Ant, Nurkic, others and future draft capital to compete now? This is the last time the team will have a chance to draft at #3 for a while. If you look at why this team was inconsistent last year, it's because they had a terrible bench, no actual backup for Nurkic—not necessarily that they were missing a star. I feel like they could solve those problems pretty soundly with Ant and other goodies besides #3.

- Oram mentioned hearing an Ayton to Dallas/Nurkic to Phoenix/? to Portland 3-way construction; what could Portland possibly get back from Dallas that would make that trade worth it? Kleber/Bertans/#10? Help me out here.

- Sam H

We'll take these one at a time.

- All I'll say about the reports that Bridges is completely off the table is that on Feb. 7, ESPN reported that the Nets had no intention of trading Kevin Durant. 24 hours later, the Nets traded Durant to Phoenix. Everything that's out there right now from all sides is posturing. We're starting to see it from the Blazers' end, too, with the messaging that, actually, they'd be perfectly happy keeping the third pick and drafting somebody unless they're completely blown away by an offer. I believe that about as much as I believe Bridges is untouchable for the Nets. It's all a negotiation this far out from the draft.

- Keeping the third pick and using their other trade pieces to make upgrades is certainly an option, but you're not going to be able to make the same caliber of upgrades without it. That pick is by far their best asset, and arguably the best asset any team in the league will have to use between now and the start of free agency.

- I haven't heard about that specific scenario, but I'm not sure why Phoenix wouldn't want the No. 10 pick back from Dallas if they're giving up the best player in the trade in Ayton. Getting any kind of positive asset for Nurkic would be a win for the Blazers, but I don't really see how involving Portland is worthwhile for the Mavs or Suns.

Reading tea leaves - it seems Bridges is the main target. Assuming we find an amicable agreement (far from done deal but I read the nets:Alex Schiffer article today (5/25) as a sign the sides are negotiating - “it would take more than #3 and Simons (or Sharpe)” ) tell me to take my rose color glasses of but let’s pretend for a moment my assumption is correct, I have two questions:

1. I have a feeling it’s going to be Sharpe. Simons and Bridges seem to be just a tight as Dame and Bridges (remember the game winner Ant hit over Bridges the beginning of last season and him talking about not seeing that move from him before) - so question here is: Does the Phil Beckner connection matter or do you suggest I stop snooping Dame and Ant’s instagrams using my wife’s profile?
2. Does adding Bridges for Sharpe and #3 and additional draft capital (Heck expand the pie and add a swap of Nurk for Nic Claxton to the deal to have a better fit at Center defensively) - Is that enough to make the Blazers a contender? Dame, Ant, Bridges, Grant (another assumption for this exercise) and Claxton - what’s our bench need to look like? Don’t we still have the same issue with Ant-Dame defensive back court? What say you?

Gonna be a wild month!!! Keep up the great work!

Best,

Pete

I would say that you're correct that the report you mentioned should be taken as a sign that they're negotiating. I would also strongly disagree with the notion that it would be Sharpe rather than Simons included in the trade, or any other trade. Short of the pipe-dream scenario of Joel Embiid becoming available, I don't think Sharpe is on the table at all. The Blazers knew going into the second half of the season that long-term, they were going to have to make a decision between Simons and Sharpe, and over the final month of the season, Sharpe did a lot to make that decision easier. Simons' salary is also easier to include in a trade to match the kind of money we're talking about for one of these impact wings.

As far as whether that makes them a title contender, just look at these playoffs. Did anyone think Miami was a title contender a month ago? What even is a title contender anymore? Outside of Denver, every team in the west has some pretty big question marks for next year and beyond. You can go through them one-by-one if you want to. Only the Nuggets are a sure thing to stay as good as they are right now. Why couldn't a Lillard-Bridges-Grant team be right in the mix next year with upgrades around the margins? That's what they (and every other west team) think about themselves, anyway.

Hey Sean, any idea what Shaedon’s off season plans are? Boxing with Dame? Working out with Phil [Beckner] and Dame? Cancun with Dame? I really hope he is at Dame’s hip! Whatever moves that might happen will happen, but him taking a jump will have a big impact on next season’s trajectory.

- Alex P.

Sharpe said at exit interviews that he wants to play for the Blazers' Summer League team in Las Vegas, and my sense is that the organization won't keep him from doing it. He might only play one or two games before being shut down, but I'd say it's more likely than not that he'll put in an appearance there.

I'm not sure what his plans are for the offseason beyond that. If he wanted to work out with Lillard during the summer, I can't imagine Lillard would be against that. But I haven't heard anything concrete one way or the other about whether that's happening.