MAILBAG: Deni Avdija's Future and the Latest on Trail Blazers' Moda Center Negotiations

Hi Sean, you've previously addressed a Deni extension but could you respond with your opinion on Sam Quinn's recent comments?

- Ed Q.

Not sure what there is for me to "respond" to here. All Sam did was lay out the mechanics of the Blazers' cap situation, as it relates to Deni Avdija's contract status, and didn't say anything I didn't write when I covered this topic on here three months ago. It's pretty straightforward: either the Blazers carve out enough cap space to do a renegotiate-and-extend deal with Avdija next summer, or he becomes a free agent in 2028. I have no reason to believe the two sides won't work something out quickly if it gets to that point, but that's a ways out. It's not worth anyone's energy to worry about right now.

Making Sense of Deni Avdija’s Upcoming Contract Possibilities

Avdija has two years remaining on an ultra-cheap contract, and there are several ways a potential extension with the Trail Blazers could go.

The Rose Garden ReportSean Highkin

I do, however, think this is yet another example of something I talk about often, on my various platforms, which is the messed-up incentive structure of engagement farming that has existed since "X, The Everything App" was bought by the person who currently owns it.

Sam made the original comment on a podcast called The Third Apron, which he cohosts with Yossi Gozlan. If you don't know this podcast, I've been a guest on it numerous times and Yossi does a great job getting in the weeds of breaking down teams' salary cap and roster situations. That's his niche and what the show is focused on, and that's what he and Sam were doing on this episode. At no point do either of them claim to have inside information or be "reporting" anything about Avdija's future. It's all opinion-based analysis.

The comments from Sam about Avdija and the Blazers originally got picked up by an account called "Fullcourtpass" that has around 77,000 followers and, from what I can tell, exists solely to tweet this kind of stuff and get paid engagement through X's blue-check system. This is what they posted:

Anyone who listened to the original conversation on the podcast wouldn't have given it a second thought because, again, Avdija's contract status is something people have been talking about for months and the facts of it are pretty well-established.

But I'd venture a guess that most of the 650,000-plus people who saw the "Fullcourtpass" tweet aren't familiar with Yossi, Sam or The Third Apron, so they're going to see a tweet by an account with a lot of followers and a blue check that's framed as, "National NBA writer for CBS Sports says there's a very good chance the Blazers lose Deni Avdija in free agency" and react how you'd expect people to react to it. The algorithm takes over from there, and Sam has to write an essay-length tweet clarifying what he said, and it becomes a day or two of a discourse cycle over something that isn't breaking news. I hope whoever runs "Fullcourtpass" got a few cents' worth of engagement payouts for it at least.

So-called "aggregators" have always existed. About 15 years ago, major companies like Yahoo (Ball Don't Lie), NBC (ProBasketballTalk, which I used to work for) and CBS Sports (Eye on Basketball) had dedicated NBA blogs whose primary function was to react to news and round it all up in one place, with smart and informed analysis added on by the writers. As people read less and less, those jobs have slowly been eliminated and replaced by social-media accounts like "Fullcourtpass" and others (TheDunkCentral, Evan Sidery, etc.) that just post anything NBA-related with the goal of getting engagement and clout, and nothing more. If they post misinformation or misrepresent something, or straight-up steal someone else's reporting, there's no blowback or consequences for them. The Elon checks still cash the same.

The combination of the paid-blue-check system on the app formerly known as Twitter, and the generally steep decline of media literacy in the world (to say nothing of the advent of AI, which makes it cheaper and easier than ever for legit-looking content to be created and spread), is creating this environment. You've seen it manifest itself in much more serious and consequential ways in the world than the blowing up of a basketball podcaster's comments about a Blazers player's contract status (i.e. everything that's happened since 2016), and we're all worse off for it.

I wish people would be smarter about this stuff and pause for two seconds before reacting to every tweet they're fed that's designed to get this reaction, but I know we're well past the point where that's a reasonable thing to expect. Better yet, everyone could get off of Twitter completely, something I finally did this week. That's also probably unrealistic, but it would be a net positive for the world. There's nothing good that comes from any engagement on there anymore. It's all fake and engineered to make you miserable.

(As for the part of the viral tweet where Sam calls the Blazers a "sinking ship," I can't exactly blame anyone for looking at everything that's gone on with the new ownership group in the last six months and coming to that conclusion. Fair or not, the organization's reputation has taken a huge hit since the sale closed in March, and most of it is self-inflicted.)

Are we <really> out of the woods with the arena deal? How concerned or optimistic should we be?

- Jacob G.

The news was going crazy when Portland City Council was voting on funding the Moda Center renovations. What’s the status today and is there a way to get updates while that negotiation process continues?

- John C.

Hi Sean - it seems like news on the lease negotiations has been quiet ever since the City Council approved their term sheet back in early August. With the State's funding approval set to expire at the end of the year if no agreement is in place, is there optimism a deal is done by then? Is there a reason to panic at this point?

- John M.

As you'd expect, a lot of questions about Tom Dundon, the ongoing arena talks and the Blazers' future in Portland. I'm going to get all of that out of the way today and then focus on some more basketball-related questions tomorrow.