MAILBAG: Is This the Summer to Trade Anfernee Simons?
Plus, trade partners, roster needs, offseason targets and more.
As promised, part two of this week’s mailbag. You can read part one below if you missed it:
This installment covers Anfernee Simons’ future, what types of players the Trail Blazers may be looking for on the trade market this summer, and a new CBA wrinkle.
Hi Sean, do you think Anfernee will have a real shot at earning the starting point guard of the future spot this upcoming season? Or is it pretty much Scoot’s to lose given his age and where he was drafted. Anfernee having as much gravity as he did showed he can be special with better teammates around him to capitalize on that. Just curious if he will actually get a real shot to start alongside Sharpe or if Scoot is gauranteed to start.
- Jay
I don’t think anyone is guaranteed any role. If anything, I’d say that if all three guards are on the roster, Simons is the most set as a starter because of experience and seniority. I don’t think, if he’s still here, you can justify having him come off the bench behind a second-year player and a third-year player, both of whom have proven very little.
What position he plays depends on who he starts alongside. If it’s him and Henderson, he’ll play the two. If it’s him and Sharpe, he’ll play the one. Maybe they start all three together, but that’s tough from a size standpoint as we saw for almost a decade with guard-heavy lineups built around Damian Lillard.
It’s going to depend on what the roster looks like and who looks good during camp in October. But, as we’ve written here many times in the last few weeks, Joe Cronin has some things to figure out this summer.
Do you think Cronin has already made up his mind between keeping Scoot or Simons? It has to be one or the other, and he will forever be linked with Scoot, so it has to be Scoot, right?
I’m assuming he is just biding his time with Simons to get maximum return on a trade. Moving past the 2024 draft was probably a benchmark to avoid more 2024 picks a compensation, so should we expect a Simons trade no later than next year’s trade deadline?
- Kacy H.
Just like above, I don’t think anyone’s mind has “already been made up” about anything. You’d think that because Cronin drafted Henderson No. 3 overall, there’s no way he’d ever consider moving him, but stranger things have happened. Tyrese Haliburton was Monte McNair’s first lottery pick less than two months after getting the job as Kings GM, and he traded him halfway through his second season for Domantas Sabonis. The Clippers traded Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after his rookie season when the opportunity to get Paul George presented itself. So it’s been done.
I do think that between the two, Simons has the most trade value at this exact moment. He’s on a good contract for his age and production and has proven more in the NBA than Henderson has. So if you forced me to pick which one is more likely to be playing for a different team sooner, I would pick Simons. But I don’t think it’s a sure thing either one is or isn’t traded. They could very well keep both for another year and see where things sit at the deadline or next summer.
Joe Cronin on more than once occasion has said that the team isn't talented enough. With the draft being one of the few tools that are under the team's control, what are the skillsets that the team needs to prioritize in order to unlock the team for future success?
- Victor T.
Shooting is the big one. For years while Lillard was here, especially under Terry Stotts, they built rosters heavy on shooting that were woefully undersized and couldn’t defend anyone. This year, they went the opposite way—they got bigger and tougher but outside of Simons, they didn’t really have any shooting. There has to be a balance they can find.
Regarding the upcoming roster crunch you referenced recently, do you think the Sixers could be a good trade partner? They've only got one guaranteed contract headed into next season, lots of cap space, some decent draft picks, and obviously are going to need help at almost every position. Could they be a match for someone like Brogdon, Thybulle, Grant, Simons, et cetera?
- Sam
Potentially, yeah. I haven’t heard anything specific about interest or talks there, but as you said, they don’t have much solidified outside of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Outside of Simons (who is redundant with Maxey), any of those other veterans would be a good fit in Philadelphia. The buzz right now is that if the Clippers flame out, they’ll use their cap space to pursue Paul George in free agency. But if that doesn’t happen, they have to do something with that cap space, and it can be easier to work out a trade when one team can just take a player into their space without having to send back equal salaries. Detroit, Orlando, Utah, San Antonio and Oklahoma City are the other teams projected to have a lot of cap space. So there are options.
The question then becomes whether any of these teams have something Portland wants. In Philadelphia’s case, they barely have anyone under contract next season, so unless Paul Reed really moves you, you’re probably looking at a deal centered around picks. The Sixers don’t have a ton, but they have a few far-out firsts and swaps they got from the Clippers in the James Harden deal.
In previous columns, you’ve alluded to the team prioritizing young, current NBA players when trading vets, and potentially the GSW pick, but have not wanted to be specific about it in the past. Is it time to get more specific? Who are some young players around the league, that are mildly realistic to acquire, and the Blazers would be interested in? What’s a rough outline young players the team wants to acquire in terms, of age, contract status, current production level, skillset, and traits?
- Ross M.
Look at the two examples I gave above in response to Kacy’s question. SGA and Haliburton weren’t available on the trade market until they were. I’m not saying the Blazers will have the opportunity to land a future MVP candidate on the upswing of his career in a trade this summer, but that archetype of under-25 guy still on a rookie contract who could become a star in a different situation and is available in a specific circumstance could be there.
I’m expecting this to be a pretty chaotic offseason when it comes to big names being on the move, depending on who loses earlier than expected in the playoffs. The Blazers aren’t in those conversations anymore like they were last spring, when they were still trying to build around Lillard. But there could be a domino effect elsewhere that creates opportunities.
If you were the GM who would you target in the draft assuming we keep our 2 lottery picks (and they stay put in current 4 & 14) and who would you target via trade/FA to optimize the roster after adding our 2 lottery picks? We're awfully guard heavy already and seems half the lottery talent in this years lesser draft pool plays G so figure we go wing or big but was wondering if you had an "ideal" off-season scenario between draft & trades/FAs.
- David S.
I’m not the world’s foremost draft expert (I start getting to know these guys when they become NBA players), but positionally and skill-wise, the names projected at the top that make the most sense for them are probably Alex Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher. Another Frenchman, Tidjane Salaun, could be an interesting flyer at 14 if he doesn’t go earlier. Colorado’s Cody Williams (brother of Jalen) and UConn’s Stephon Castle would also be worth keeping an eye on.
It’ll be a lot easier to talk in specifics about offseason targets once we see how the lottery shakes out, who has a good showing at the combine and how the rest of the playoffs play out. As I said above, there are guys people might not think are available right now that could change if a team loses early.
"Starting in July 2024, teams can use non-taxpayer or room mid-level and bi-annual exceptions to acquire a player via trade or waivers."
How might this new rule be put into practice this offseason, and how might it affect the Blazers?
- Sam
This is one of the more interesting and less talked-about wrinkles in the new CBA. It basically means that every team that’s under the luxury tax has a $12.9 million trade exception they can use if they want to instead of signing a player in that salary slot (or $8 million for cap-space teams or $4.6 million for teams that have the biannual exception).
The Blazers currently don’t have access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception because they’re over the tax, which is something they’ll have to figure out in the coming months. They didn’t use it at all last year, and it’s too early to say whether they will this year. But it does mean that if a team below the tax wanted to trade for Robert Williams III or Matisse Thybulle without giving up matching salary, they could, since both of them make slightly less than the $12.9 million number.