Gary Payton II Saga Offers More Questions Than Answers

TUALATIN, Ore. — On Friday, the Trail Blazers play their final game of the calendar year of 2022 on the road against the Warriors. At some point during the evening, Gary Payton II will receive his championship ring for the pivotal role he played in Golden State's title run last spring.

Will it also be the night Payton makes his debut in a Blazers uniform? That part is still as up in the air as it's ever been.

The team announced the week before the start of training camp that Payton had undergone a core muscle surgery in July that would sideline him through training camp and the preseason, but that he'd be ready to return for the season opener. From there, it's been a steady stream of delays, two weeks at a time, without much concrete information.

The last official update from the team came on Nov. 18 and said Payton was experiencing "intermittent soreness" during his ramp-up and recovery, and would be re-evaluated again in two weeks.

Everything since then has been guesswork—for fans, media and even those within the organization.

"Everything is still pretty much the same," head coach Chauncey Billups said after practice on Tuesday. "We're just trying to keep him advancing to where we're comfortable enough to put him out there and know that he's not risking anything."

He was then asked about a recent report from Turner Sports/Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes that suggested Payton would return this week.

"That would be nice," Billups said. "I wish I could tell you that was true. I just don't know."

Billups' exchange with reporters on Wednesday was a little more telling.

"I don't know," he said when asked if Payton was likely out Friday. "He could wake up tomorrow and say, 'I'm playing.' I don't know."

Billups was asked to clarify what he meant by that statement, which would seem to imply the decision of when to play is entirely up to Payton.

"It's a collective effort," he said. "Obviously, we're never going to say, 'You're ready to play, you're playing.' We're never going to do that to a player. He needs to be comfortable with it. But I think we all feel very confident that he looks good and he's very close."

Billups then said "yes" when asked if he and the medical staff would feel comfortable playing Payton as soon as he tells them he's ready to go.

It was as close as anybody in the organization has come to saying outright that at this point, Payton is the one holding himself back from playing.

From the beginning, the Blazers' handling of Payton's status has provided more questions than answers. He underwent the surgery in July, but the team didn't announce it until mid-September, shortly before the start of training camp, for reasons that are still unclear.

In the year since the current front-office regime took over last December, the organization has for the most part been much more transparent about injuries and timelines than the previous one. They've provided regular updates on Damian Lillard and other players who were out with injuries, and stuck to when they said those players would be re-evaluated and given updates when appropriate. It makes the lack of official information around Payton all the more noticeable, that it's so at odds with the way they've done things otherwise.

Haynes' report from Dec. 22, in addition to saying Payton hoped to play this week, added this:

The organization thought he would have returned to action a month earlier, sources say, but Payton opted to take his time to heal not only physically but mentally.

That initial timeline lines up with what I'd heard up until that point—the rough target date for Payton's return was around Thanksgiving, and the Blazers' hot start to the season gave the medical staff leeway to be conservative with his recovery. The team signed him to a three-year, $26.1 million contract to have him for the playoffs, the thinking went, not for November, so there was no point in rushing it.

It's now over a month since Payton was initially expected back, and almost six weeks since the team's last official update on his status.

You don't have to look hard in the loud online segments of the fanbase on Twitter or the r/RipCity subreddit to see comparisons made to Festus Ezeli that, while understandable, aren't entirely applicable. Ezeli had a degenerative knee condition that had been a known issue dating back to his time with the Warriors, and never played in the NBA again after signing with Portland in the summer of 2016. That's a far cry from Payton's situation, but as more time goes by it's getting harder and harder to fault anyone wondering if there's something more going on here.

Sources have said dating back weeks that Payton hasn't had any setbacks in his recovery from the core muscle surgery, but that he and the medical staff were working through soreness that would come up during the ramp-up process. That appears to still be the case—Billups said he practiced fully Tuesday, but didn't do everything Wednesday.

How much of this is physical and how much of it is mental, as suggested in the Haynes report, is unclear, but it's been a talking point dating back to before the start of the season.

"Gary is such a tough player, he's gonna fight through anything," Billups said on Oct. 8, after a practice during training camp. "You almost have to protect these guys from themselves. He's almost used to playing hurt his whole career. He plays hurt. But he's had to. He's always looking for jobs and looking for a role. Now, he's solidified here. He's gotten paid. He's gotten what he deserves. He has a home. And we appreciate him. I want him back as soon as possible, but I want the real GP back. I want him mentally in shape just like physically. I don't want him to second-guess his body when he's back."

Given all of this uncertainty, it would be beneficial for Payton to shed light on where he is, physically and mentally, rather than letting his coach and others in the organization speak for him and leave all of this open to speculation. That has not happened. The Blazers have only made Payton available to reporters one time since his Sept. 26 media day press conference (on that day, both he and general manager Joe Cronin indicated that he'd be ready for opening night). He spoke at the practice facility on Nov. 1, on the day he was officially ruled out for the team's first six-game road trip. That was nearly two months ago. All requests since then for the team to make Payton available have been declined.

By rule, injured players are only required to speak to the media once following a surgery, and he's done that. But given how much longer Payton has been out than the initial timeline, and how vague and infrequent the official updates from the team have been, there's an argument to be made for allowing Payton to speak for himself, both for his sake and the organization's. Only Payton knows why he hasn't played yet, and only he can truly share that with the public.

If Billups and his teammates are tired of giving the same answer every time they're asked about him, it's equally tiring for us beat writers to be asking those questions over and over. But that's the job, as frustrating as the lack of new information is for fans.

Thursday at 5 p.m., teams are required to submit injury reports for Friday's games. Thus far, Payton has never been listed as anything but "Out" with what the team has officially termed "Return to Competition Re-Conditioning." If he's upgraded to "Questionable" ahead of the game against the Warriors, that will be a sign that they truly hope he'll be able to play. But even then, don't expect a final update until 30 minutes before tipoff, when teams are mandated to submit final injury reports. Billups will say during his pregame availability that Payton will warm up and see how he feels. It's going to come down to the wire.

Or, Payton could be ruled out again, and everybody keeps this song and dance going into the new year. We won't know until we know, as has been the case the entire time.