Four Things to Watch in Trail Blazers' Regular-Season Stretch Run

The Blazers have 24 games remaining in their post-All-Star schedule. Here's what to keep an eye on.

The Trail Blazers limped into the All-Star break two games under .500 with 24 games remaining. Anfernee Simons is out indefinitely with a sprained ankle, and Jusuf Nurkic and Justise Winslow are also still out with injuries. They have a tough, road-heavy schedule coming up through the end of February and into the beginning of March.

But—and stop me if you've heard this one before—despite currently sitting in 12th place in the Western Conference, the Blazers are just half a game out of the play-in, two games out of the top six, and three-and-a-half games out of home-court advantage in the first round. What has been a tight playoff race all season hasn't really gained any separation yet, and as they have all year, the Blazers will have an opportunity in the coming weeks to make up ground and make one final push.

There are a few factors that will determine whether the Blazers will make a run—or not.

The next 17 days will decide how the season goes

The Blazers begin their post-All-Star schedule tonight in Sacramento, followed by a home game against Houston, a road game at Golden State and a home game against New Orleans, the first time Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum will actually face off against each other. Then, they go out on the last of three six-game road trips of the season, which will take them to Atlanta, Orlando, Detroit, Boston, Philadelphia and New Orleans.

That's 10 games in 17 days, eight of which on the road, and only two against tanking teams (Houston and Detroit) that should be penciled in as wins. Of the rest, two are against Eastern Conference contenders (Boston and Philly), one is against a solid Western Conference playoff team a tier above them (Sacramento) and the rest are against teams of roughly the same talent level and place in the standings as Portland. They'll have to get through some of this schedule without Jusuf Nurkic, and likely all of it without Anfernee Simons.

It's a tough task for a team this injured and inconsistent, but if they can split the next 10 games to stay within range of .500 after one last marathon road trip, it's reasonable to hope for a push for the play-in, or maybe even higher. They've made runs like that after the All-Star break in years past, most notably their 18-8 post-All-Star finish in 2016-17 and a 13-game winning streak around this time of year in 2017-18. Lillard is certainly playing at the level where they can be reasonably thought to be in most of these games. Maybe they have another run in them. My sense is everyone's preference is still to be competitive the rest of the way and make the playoffs.

But if this 10-game stretch goes the other way, at that point it may be time to consider shutting guys down and maximizing their lottery position. Either way it goes, we'll find out in the next two-and-a-half weeks.

Will Shaedon Sharpe maximize the final two months of his rookie season?

We'll find out tonight who starts at shooting guard and small forward while Simons is out. Chauncey Billups said at practice on Wednesday that two of Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle and Cam Reddish will get those spots. Thybulle seems like a safe bet to take one of them because of what he brings on the defensive end. But Sharpe has a real opportunity here to make the most of the rest of his rookie season.

We've all marveled at the dunks and the flashes of spectacular physical ability, but Sharpe's first season has been very much a mixed bag. He still has frequent defensive lapses, he still passes up too many open shots and he still looks lost more often than not, all of which is stuff you'd expect from a rookie, especially one that skipped their entire freshman season of college.

But Sharpe has started to put some things together over the past two weeks, being more impactful at both ends of the floor on a consistent basis.

If you want a case study, look at a player Sharpe has been compared to since entering the draft: Minnesota's Anthony Edwards. Edwards was similarly raw and inconsistent for the first half of his rookie season, with occasional moments that reminded you why he was the No. 1 overall pick but nothing close to the All-Star-caliber player he's grown into now. But look at his splits from before and after the All-Star break as a rookie:

Basketball-Reference.com

Whether he starts or not, Sharpe will have more of an opportunity to play while Simons is out. An Edwards-like second-half leap is not an unrealistic thing to watch for.

Who earns the starting small forward spot down the stretch?

From the sound of it, Thybulle and Reddish, the Blazers' two trade-deadline newcomers, are primarily in the mix to start at small forward. Nassir Little hasn't gotten that nod as many thought he would after Josh Hart and Gary Payton II were traded at the deadline.

Here's what Billups said a couple weeks ago when asked what Little had to do to earn more minutes:

"He's just gotta be consistent. Nas is a guy who we know can really shoot it. He's been very inconsistent. When he came back, he was obviously making shots. Too many missed assignments, defensively. And I've just always felt like, when you're a reserve and when you're coming off the bench, your margin of error is really small. You've got to do most things right, and that's the only way you earn more and earn more. And some nights, he does a really good job and some nights he struggles. It just is what it is. Nas is still a very young player. Even for all of our younger guys, it's not the shotmaking that's always going to keep you on the floor. It's all the other things."

If Sharpe starts at shooting guard, Thybulle will likely get the other wing spot for defensive reasons. But if not, Little will have to compete with Reddish for those minutes. It's not a question of talent or work ethic for Little—he just hasn't been what they thought he'd be on the defensive end. Some of that undoubtedly is due to the time he missed with a hip injury earlier this season. It appears as though Billups simply wants to take a look at Reddish for a while given that the team will have a decision to make on him this summer as a restricted free agent. But there's a balance to strike between building up the confidence of a player who comes to Portland having not panned out on two other teams and taking that confidence away from a player who's been with you longer.

Little, Reddish and Thybulle will all likely get looks with the starters at some point the rest of the way. Who does the most with that opportunity will bear watching.

How much will the lack of size hurt?

There's no word on when Nurkic will be back from the calf injury that's sidelined him since the Blazers' Feb. 3 win in Washington. Billups said Wednesday at practice that the starting center is progressing and getting closer, but there's no definitive word on when he'll be back. At a minimum, he's been ruled out for tonight in Sacramento.

For all his flaws, the Blazers need Nurkic if they hope to stay in the mix for a postseason run. You saw it in the pre-All-Star loss to the Wizards, when Kristaps Porzingis was shooting over whichever undersized defender the Blazers put on him. Drew Eubanks and Trendon Watford are doing the best they can, and both have been good in their roles for most of the season, but both are undersized and with games coming up against teams featuring Joel Embiid, Al Horford and Domantas Sabonis, they're going to be overmatched a lot of nights in the frontcourt.

Either Nurkic comes back soon and gives them at least one big body, or they look to the buyout market for reinforcements (for what it's worth, I haven't heard anything about this being imminent, and the Blazers would have to waive a player to sign anyone), or they ride out the rest of the season with Eubanks and Watford splitting center minutes. The latter option feels dicey if they hope to still compete for the playoffs.