What's at Stake in the Draft Lottery

When people ask me — either in mailbag questions or my day-to-day life — what the Trail Blazers are going to do this summer, I've had the same answer for the past month: Nothing will be known until we see how the lottery lands.

This is the "hurry up and wait" part of the NBA calendar for teams not in the playoffs. Two weeks from today, with every team's front-office staffs in Chicago for the predraft combine, Portland and the other 13 lottery teams will learn their fate.

This is the time of year when it's OK for teams, as well as fans, to just hope irrationally that things go their way. That's all there is to do. The lottery has nothing to do with existing roster construction, or an executive's negotiating ability, or a market's attractiveness to free agents. You have a number of ping-pong balls assigned to your name based on your record last season that, in all cases, is not zero. The odds probably won't hit, but maybe they will.

For Portland, that number is 10.5 percent. That's the chance they'll have to land the No. 1 overall pick. Times four, that's their chance to move up into the top four from the fifth spot they currently occupy. They could fall down as far as ninth, if all four of the teams drawn in the top four are among the nine behind them. That's not likely, but it's possible.

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There's nothing they can do about any of it in the meantime. They can try to tilt the vibes in their favor with the selection of their lottery representative—that's about it.

That announcement will come closer to the event, and there are differing opinions on which way they should go. They can't send Damian Lillard again—he went last year, in what was supposed to be a one-time trip to the lottery for the franchise, and they fell back a spot when the names were drawn. Head coach Chauncey Billups is too polarizing, and nobody else on the current roster has the juice Lillard does.

When the Blazers won the draft lottery in 2007, their onstage representative was reigning Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy. Roy's relationship with the organization has been strained over the 12 years since his forced retirement, but if he was willing to do it, it's hard to imagine anybody being against it. Greg Oden would also be an inspired choice, if the goal is exorcizing demons. LaMarcus Aldridge, the third member of the late-2000s "big three," officially announced his retirement from the NBA recently and would be a good compromise choice and would probably be more open to the idea.

I kind of think it should be general manager Joe Cronin. Last year, he was officially given the permanent job a week before the lottery, after a trade deadline focused on cleaning up his predecessor's mismanagement. That isn't the case anymore. This is his roster, and the unplanned second trip to the lottery happened entirely under his watch. The organization has emphasized transparency and accountability since that change took place; Cronin being the face of the franchise on lottery day would send the right message. If they move up, his slow-playing of the retool paid off. If they fall back, should be the one to wear it.

If the Blazers win the lottery, everything changes. This is one of those generation-defining ones. The LeBron James lottery in 2003. The Tim Duncan lottery in 1997. Maybe the Anthony Davis lottery in 2012 is the next-closest thing. Whichever team gets Victor Wembanyama will instantly become the biggest story in the league for the foreseeable future. This is Zion Williamson without the medical red flags. When Lillard said at his exit interview that he's not interested in playing with another 19-year-old as he chases a title, it's safe to assume he'd be willing to make an exception for the most-hyped prospect since LeBron.

But as Lillard telegraphed, and Cronin didn't necessarily refute, if they don't land at No. 1, the obvious course of action is to trade the pick. If it lands at No. 2 or 3, Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller are highly-regarded enough as prospects that they could be enough to be the centerpiece of an Andrew Wiggins-for-Kevin Love-style deal. You've heard all the names that have been connected.

There's a steep drop-off after No. 3 when it comes to how this draft is viewed by people in front offices I've talked to. There are still good prospects in the top 10, but no one else is seen as an immediate franchise-changer. Portland staying at No. 5 or moving down would certainly not be ideal. They can still trade the pick as part of a package for a veteran upgrade, but they'd likely have to include more future picks.

They won't know until they know, and that's coming two weeks from today.