Trail Blazers' Draft Lottery Odds, Explained
Trail Blazers' Draft Lottery Odds, Explained
Portland could have two lottery picks in this year's draft.
In less than three weeks, the Trail Blazers will know exactly which picks they have in this year’s draft. The lottery is set to take place in Chicago on Sunday, May 12.
Last year, I was one of a handful of media members invited to be in the drawing room where the draft order was determined. Portland had the fifth-highest odds last year and moved up to No. 3 overall, and ultimately used that pick to draft Scoot Henderson.
I don’t know yet whether I’ll be in the drawing room again this year (the league doesn’t send those invites out until closer to the date), but I will be in Chicago that whole week for the lottery and predraft combine.
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On Monday, the NBA broke all of the standings ties via random drawing to fully determine the draft order outside of the lottery, and the odds for the teams with a chance at the top pick. Here’s a full rundown of where the Blazers stand before the lottery:
The Blazers’ own lottery pick
Portland finished the season at 21-61, tied with Charlotte for the third-worst record in the NBA. Monday’s coin-flip tiebreaker officially designated the Hornets as the third-seeded team and the Blazers as the fourth-seeded team for lottery purposes.
Normally, the bottom three teams each get a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick, with the fourth-worst team getting a 12.5 percent chance. But because the Blazers and Hornets finished with the same record, they split those odds. The two worst teams in the league, Washington and Detroit, each get 14 percent, while Portland and Charlotte each get a slightly lesser percentage.
Monday’s random drawing gave Charlotte one extra tenth of a percent chance (one four-number combination out of the 1,000 the league will draw from) over Portland. Losing the tiebreaker and being slotted fourth instead of third also means that the furthest the Blazers’ pick could fall is to No. 8 overall, if all four teams in the top four are teams behind them in the standings.
When the ping-pong balls are drawn, the Blazers will have a 13.2 percent chance at landing the No. 1 overall pick and a 50 percent chance of being one of the top four teams in the lottery.
Golden State’s lottery pick
The Blazers have the Warriors’ first-round pick this year unless it jumps up into the top four. Golden State finished with the exact same record as Sacramento (46-36), and after both teams lost in the play-in, they will be the final two teams in the lottery. The NBA’s Monday tiebreaker drawing put the Kings ahead.
If the back of the lottery stays chalk, Golden State’s pick will be No. 14 overall and will go to Portland. It has a 3.4 percent chance of jumping into the top four.
If the pick moves into the top four this year, the Warriors keep it and Portland gets their first-round pick next year, unless it lands at No. 1 overall. If that happens, Portland would then get Golden State’s 2026 first-round pick, unprotected.