MAILBAG: Does NBA's New TV Deal Mean Trail Blazers Will Be Sold Sooner?
The latest on ownership, Moda Center renovation plans and Kris Murray and Rayan Rupert after Summer League.
As the dog days of summer continue, so too does our summer mailbag.
The first of two final installments this week focuses on Trail Blazers business topics, including an update on the state of ownership, prospects of a sale and the status of the Moda Center renovations. We also touch on the development of Rayan Rupert and Kris Murray after mixed-bag Summer League performances for both of them.
Let’s dive in.
With the new television agreement, would that increase the likelihood of the Blazers being sold?
- Todd
The Blazers are going to be sold. According to the terms laid out in Paul Allen’s trust, all of his assets have to eventually be sold. Some of them (two of his superyachts, his art collection, the Cinerama movie theater in Seattle) already have. The rest will at some point, and that includes the Blazers and Seahawks.
The timeline for the sale is still a complete mystery. Jody Allen has never done an interview or a press conference to answer questions about this (I’ve tried). The NBA league office has declined comment whenever I’ve asked if they have an imposed sell-by date for the team.
The 11-year, $76 billion broadcast deal the NBA just finalized with Disney, NBC and Amazon was one of the things the Blazers’ current ownership was likely waiting on before starting the sale process, but not the only thing. Expansion is coming at some point in the next few years, with two teams (almost definitely in Seattle and Las Vegas) being added, each carrying an expansion fee of at least $5 billion, money that will be split up between the owners.
There’s also the matter of the long-term Moda Center lease negotiations with the city, which are ongoing (more on that below). I wouldn’t expect a sale to happen before all of those things are wrapped up, which could take several more years. So things are going to be status quo with ownership until then.
Has anything changed about the timeline of the Rose Garden renovations? I know the organization was willing to defer the upgrades to help facilitate the possible WNBA expansion but with that in flux now do you expect the organization to move quicker on the renovations?
- Jesse
As far as I’ve heard, the timeline hasn’t been finalized yet. The goal, roughly, is to have everything done in time for the building to host the 2030 NCAA Women’s Final Four, but the exact dates for the two remaining summers’ worth of renovations haven’t been decided.
After agreeing to a five-year bridge lease with the city of Portland in February (which will officially go before city council later this week, where it is expected to pass easily), the two sides are working on negotiating a long-term lease to keep the Blazers playing at the Moda Center for decades to come. Under the bridge agreement, the revenue the city generates from parking and ticket sales for home games will be put back into the building. As the particulars of the lease agreement are figured out, so too will the timeline for the renovations.
I am under the impression that the arena renovations aren’t going to be an issue for the WNBA if the Portland expansion team happens (and I still believe there’s a strong chance it will). If they have to play a couple of seasons at the Coliseum during the renovations, that isn’t a dealbreaker for the WNBA.
In summer league did Kris Murray or Rayan Rupert do anything to change your view of their potential, for better or worse?
- Jonathan
Not really—both were about what I expected. Outside of an awful first half of the first game, Rupert was pretty good and showed the playmaking flashes at his size that has the organization as high on him as they are. Murray did some good things when he was on the floor but still hasn’t found his shot, which is going to be the thing that determines whether he’s in the rotation or not. There’s no reason he can’t be a good shooter, it just hasn’t happened yet. All of the strengths and weaknesses of both Rupert and Murray from their rookie seasons were on display in Vegas.
I’m expecting Rupert to once again spend a lot of time with the Remix next season. Murray has a better chance of cracking the rotation—again, if the shot comes around.
Are Cronin and Schmitz “Moneyballing” the wing position?
Here’s my theory, and I think someone should do a deep dive on this <Pepe Silvia Meme>. Cronin and Schmitz have found a market inefficiency on tall players with defensive instincts that can’t shoot…yet. They think that it’s easier to teach someone to shoot than it is to make them grow three inches or get them to play defense. So they’re throwing a bunch of darts at cheaper 6-5 to 6-9 guys with defensive inclinations and are hoping that one of them learns to shoot and becomes a valuable player. Here’s the list of players that are Moneyball candidates with their heights and career 3pt%
Thybulle: 6-5, 33,8%
Walker: 6-9, 29.2%
Camara: 6-8, 33.7%
Rupert: 6-6, 35.9%
Murray: 6-8, 26.8%
Minaya: 6-5, 24.6%
Banton: 6-9, 28.9%
McGowens: 6-7, 33%
If anyone one of these guys gets to above league average on 3pt%, all of a sudden you’ve developed/discovered your own 3&D wing and you’ve got them on a cheap contract!
- Josh
I don’t think you’re completely off-base here. This front office has a type of prospect they like, and while they’re rebuilding, they have an opportunity to take a lot of swings on them and see if one hits. Camara and Walker arguably already have. Thybulle was more of a known commodity when they traded for him but he’s been a better shooter here than he was in Philadelphia. The jury is still out on the rest of them. But until they have their foundational star, they’re going to keep taking shots on these types of guys.