MAILBAG: Will the Trail Blazers Use All Four of Their Draft Picks?

Tackling draft-related topics in the first part of this week's mailbag.

📸: Jacek Boczarski, Getty Images

As usual, when I put out a call for mailbag questions last week, you guys came through in a major way and gave me enough for two parts.

The way it worked out, about half the questions I got were related to the draft, and the other half were on other topics, so that’s a pretty easy way to divide it up. We’ll hit the draft stuff today and the non-draft stuff tomorrow.

If you had to select one route for them to take in the draft which would it be out of these 4 options: 1.) Draft where they are at, 2.) Combine picks and/or player to move up in the draft, 3.) Trade down in the draft or 4.) trade out of the draft completely.

- Jason M.

Probably some combination of 1 and 4. I don’t know if anybody at the very top of this draft is worth trading up for (if they were, the teams with picks higher than 7 wouldn’t be open to trading back), and the draft board is so unpredictable that there’s no guarantee that if you trade back you’ll get the guy you want. So those two are out.

I don’t think they’ll trade out entirely, because even in a draft without superstar talent at the top, rebuilding teams should still be looking to add players on rookie-scale contracts. But if attaching the 14th pick or one or both of their second-rounders to Malcolm Brogdon or Robert Williams III gets them back a better player in return, I could see them going that way.

I’m pretty sure they’ll use the seventh pick and at least one of their seconds. I’m growing more convinced they could use the 14th pick as well, depending on how the draft shakes out. If the four options you laid one are the only ones available, I’d lean towards using the four picks they have.

Blazers have been pretty good at selecting 2nd round talent the past 10+ years it seems, what are the odds we actually keep one of this year's two (early) 2nd rd picks? Also, what are the odds we keep both lottery picks? Something’s got to give roster construction wise and I'd personally rather move vets like Malcolm or Tisse and bring in as many young talent "dice rolls" as possible.

- David S.

Hey Sean. I keep seeing some version of "The Blazers can't draft 4 rookies". The same thing was said last year, and they made all three picks. Can you play out the case for them using all four picks?

- Alex P.

Two very different circumstances. Last year they “couldn’t” use all three of their picks if their goal was to keep Damian Lillard happy and hold off a trade request. That was obviously not the direction they went. This year, the idea is that they can’t use four picks because of roster math. As of right now, they have 14 players under contract for next season before you account for any draft picks. If they use all four picks, it means multiple veterans—not just Malcolm Brogdon, which is assumed, but potentially some combination of Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle, Robert Williams III and Anfernee Simons—are out the door around the draft. That very well could be the way they decide to go. I don’t know enough yet to feel comfortable definitively saying whether they do that or not.

The mitigating factor here, as it relates to their second-round picks, is whether they can convince someone they draft with one of those picks to sign a two-way contract. Their last two second-round picks, Rayan Rupert and Jabari Walker, signed full NBA contracts. But if they use one or both second-round picks on super-raw developmental projects, maybe they put them on a two-way. Out of their three current two-way players, I think the one most likely to be back is Ibou Badji. If they use both second-round picks, they could sign both of them to two-way deals alongside him, and that would help with the roster crunch because two of the four rookies they bring in wouldn’t be taking up real roster spots and would (theoretically) mostly be playing with the Remix next season anyway.

Hi Sean,

Appreciating the content, thank you.

Based on your intel and what you’ve observed at the combine, who do you see as the ‘best player’ available at 7 and 14 versus who the Blazers may ultimately pick based on fit?

- Tim M.

I think they will go BPA over fit, with the caveat that I would be shocked if they draft another guard, or at least one of the two Kentucky guards projected in their range, Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. Nikola Topic, whose name I’ve seen on a few mock drafts landing at No. 7, is a little more feasible simply because he’s a bigger guard (6-foot-6 as opposed to both Kentucky guards being 6-foot-1) so you can talk yourself into him being able to play with more different lineup combinations. But I’d still be surprised if they went that way. In a draft where there’s this little separation in talent and there’s no clear best player available, are drafting BPA and drafting for need really different things?

I’m the wrong person to ask for an opinion about who the best player available is at this point in the process because I’m very open about the fact that I don’t watch college basketball at all. I start learning about these guys now. So I’ll defer to others, like friend of the program Danny Marang, who have done the film deep dives.

Does it seem more likely we take 2 swings with our lottery picks or 1 safer bet with maybe a lower ceiling (i.e. Knecht) and only 1 swing?

- Cody Z.

I usually assume this front office will take the swing over the safer option. That’s not a hard-and-fast rule—after all, they took Kris Murray last year and he was seen at the time as more of a finished product and readymade rotation player—but they like upside. That’s why they drafted Shaedon Sharpe over Dyson Daniels in 2022.

📸: Zach Bolinger, Getty Images

If they do go with a “safer” option with the second of their two lottery picks, the one that’s interesting to me is Colorado’s Tristan Da Silva, who worked out in Portland last year before returning to school. He feels like this year’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. (or, for that matter, Toumani Camara). But all of this comes back to the fact that I have no idea who’s going to be on the board with either of their picks.

The Blazers should draft on positional need this year, correct? So lots of 6’8” wings or taller and hope one of them works out?

- Kacy H.

This front office does have a “type,” doesn’t it? Outside of Scoot Henderson, all of their draft picks have fallen into the category of “long and athletic wings or frontcourt players with upside.” If they’re choosing among players with equal talent level, that’s usually where they’ll go.

Is #7 too early for Tidjane Salaun?

- Eric S.

If they like him that much, go for it. The day of the lottery, my thought (which was shared in the first wave of mock drafts that came out) was that Salaun would be their guy at 14, but it’s sounding more and more like he isn’t going to be there that late.

Salaun and Zaccharie Risacher (who is probably going top-3) were the two major prospects who weren’t in Chicago two weeks ago for the combine, because their teams in the French league were still playing. So neither of them met with teams or scrimmaged and went through drills in front of scouts and GMs like everyone else did. I would imagine Salaun is one of the players the Blazers will try to bring in for a workout. If that goes really well, they could decide he’s worth the gamble.

I would still lean towards Colorado’s Cody Williams being Portland’s most likely pick at No. 7 if he isn’t gone by then, based on which players projected in that range most closely resemble the archetype this front office has gone for in the past. But if he’s off the board, it’s not crazy to think they could reach for Salaun at 7. In this draft, a “reach” isn’t really a reach because everyone’s boards are so all over the place.