Trail Blazers Waiting Out Slow-Developing Trade Market
Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle could be on the move before the end of the summer—but it may take a while.
The Trail Blazers were always going to have a quiet free agency.
After picking up Dalano Banton’s $2.2 million team option for next season and signing No. 7 overall pick Donovan Clingan to his rookie-scale contract, Portland has all 15 roster spots spoken for, and being well over the salary cap, they only have exceptions to work with.
But Blazers general manager Joe Cronin already agreed to one trade, sending Malcolm Brogdon to Washington on draft night for Deni Avdija (it should be made official early next week), and there could be more coming soon.
When those moves happen and what they look like could take a while to play out.
The player the Blazers absolutely needed to move this summer was Brogdon. Trading him took Portland below the luxury-tax line, cleared up the logjam in the backcourt and moved off of a player they would have lost for nothing next summer in free agency.
That’s done now. The rest of their veterans aren’t nearly as urgent to trade, but all could make sense to move if the right deal comes along.
There’s been the most smoke around Jerami Grant, who’s been linked to the Lakers as they pursue upgrades. Many of the more high-profile names the Lakers have chased are off the board now. Atlanta traded Dejounte Murray to New Orleans, Donovan Mitchell signed an extension with Cleveland and Klay Thompson chose Dallas over Los Angeles as his post-Warriors home. The only big name left on the free-agent market for them to go after is DeMar DeRozan.
The Lakers have two tradable first-round picks, in 2029 and 2031. If the Blazers are going to trade them Grant, they’d like both of those picks back in addition to the matching salary, likely some combination of Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent or Jarred Vanderbilt, the latter two of whom come with serious injury concerns. Lakers GM Rob Pelinka, understandably, doesn’t want to give up both picks, hence the talks not getting very far to date.
Of the salaries the Lakers could send back, Hachimura is the only one that would be of interest to Portland as a player to keep. Like Avdija, he fits the profile of a wing on a reasonable contract that could complement their backcourt. But any other salary they’d immediately try to offload onto a team with cap space, such as Detroit, which could require sending out second-round picks. Even if Grant’s value may be one first-round pick, the second pick would be viewed as the cost of taking on that salary.
Right now, the Lakers don’t want to include both. If their remaining free-agency like DeRozan continue to dry up, maybe they’ll get desperate and offer both picks. If they don’t, the Blazers are in no rush to trade Grant for less than they value him. He’s under contract for four more years and has given no indication that he’s desperate to get moved. In fact, before the trade deadline, he told me that he’s happy in Portland and understands the deal with the rebuild.
Beyond Grant, Anfernee Simons’ status is worth keeping an eye on. On draft night, Cronin said the Blazers are “committed” to building around Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, and didn’t mention Simons’ name. Simons also appears open to a move—at his end-of-season exit interview in April, he said he wants “the opportunity to win,” which is very plainly not where the Blazers are right now or will be in the next few years.
For both Simons and the Blazers, a trade this summer would make some sense. But getting a read on how he’s valued around the NBA is tough. On the one hand, he’s still only 25, on a good contract for two more seasons and has developed into a knockdown off-the-dribble shooter over the last three seasons. On the other, teams are reticent to give up a lot for undersized guards with bad defensive reputations. There are a few teams, like Orlando and San Antonio, that would be obvious fits. Do they have the combination of players and picks that would appeal to Portland?
The trade with Washington is instructive when it comes to how Cronin approaches trades. Rather than seek a pure picks-and-salary-filler package for Brogdon, he targeted Avdija as a young wing on a good contract with room to improve. With any of the other veterans, he appears to also be prioritizing getting back useful players over a pure volume of picks, though the picks are nice to have in a case like that of the Lakers with Grant, where the players they could send back aren’t as appealing.
The decision to draft Clingan seventh overall has inevitably led to questions about the Blazers’ two other veteran centers, Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III. Cronin said last weekend that he’s talked to Ayton, who was “incredibly excited” about Clingan, and Chauncey Billups hinted that he might try playing the two centers together.
I think the concern about the Clingan-Ayton fit is overblown, at least for now. Rookie big men struggle with things like conditioning and foul trouble and I don’t expect Clingan to be an exception. He’s not going to be able to play starter minutes in year one; by the time he is, Ayton may be out of the picture anyway.
That’s not to say the Blazers wouldn’t trade Ayton if a team wanted him badly enough to offer real value—it’s just hard to see who that team might be right now. Ayton had a good year with the Blazers, particularly after the All-Star break, but his reputation nationally hasn’t improved from where at was at the end of his Phoenix tenure. In the short term, he’s more valuable to Portland than he would be on the trade market.
Williams is a bit more of a wild card. When the Blazers got him from Boston in the Jrue Holiday trade last fall, they envisioned him as a long-term piece in the frontcourt. Health concerns, and the presence of Clingan, probably change that thinking. Williams played just six games with the Blazers last year before suffering a season-ending knee injury in November. He’s now had major surgeries on both of his knees; even before the latest one, the Blazers were conservative with his minutes and holding him out on back-to-backs.
The last I heard, Williams’ rehab is going well and he’s expected to be ready to go for training camp in the fall. If teams knew he’d be healthy, he’d have a strong trade market. But coming off a surgery that cost him almost the full season, teams may want to wait until the deadline to see if he can stay on the floor before offering real value for him.
Matisse Thybulle is the other name to watch as the Blazers continue to discuss trades. He signed an offer sheet with Dallas last summer that the Blazers matched, and early this offseason Dallas still held interest in trading for him, but they’ve gone in a different direction now with Thompson and Naji Marshall. Thybulle has two years left on his deal at a little over $11 million per year, with the last season being a player option. His salary is small enough that he’s easy to move at the deadline, if a contending team decides he’s the P.J. Washington/Daniel Gafford-type “missing piece” that could lead them to a Dallas-like Finals run.
The trade and free-agent markets have been slow as teams attempt to navigate a highly restrictive new CBA. Things will likely pick up this month as the entire league heads to Las Vegas for Summer League and team front-office personnel are face-to-face in the same rooms. The Blazers will continue to look for deals for Grant, Simons, Williams and Thybulle that make sense for them.
And if the offers don’t present themselves right away? Well, we just watched Cronin wait out the Damian Lillard market for an entire summer until he got the deal he wanted.
I like what Cronin has done and is doing. Patience is key. There is absolutely no reason to rush in to any deal.
Thanks for the updates, Sean.